As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great
difference from either of the two states, for the same may be
hindered or promoted in either from the same causes.
12. As to the plague.
It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth
in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last
hundred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five
great plagues--viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it
is also to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill
one-fifth part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of
England do double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the
same is but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city
of London there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be
about sixty years hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of
them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many in
one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in twenty; and
consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. But if
the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of
our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of
the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if
people be worth 70 pounds per head (as hath elsewhere been shown),
then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and
the whole nation of 1,400,000 pounds per annum, and so pro rata for
a greater or lesser number; wherefore to determine which of the two
states is best--that is to say, towards which of the said two states
authority should bend the present state, a just balance ought to be
made between the disadvantages from the plague, with the advantages
accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, unto which
balance a more exact account of the people, and a better rule for
the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here given,
or are yet able to lay down.
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